PASCO -- Cold temperatures may have destroyed an estimated 20 percent of the Northwest cherry crop, but it's still expected to be the third largest on record.

"There is definitely a crop here," B.J. Thurlby told a group of 40 or so growers and shippers from five states assembled at the Northwest Cherry Growers conference on Wednesday.

Thurlby is the president of the growers.

Growers estimate this year's fresh cherry crop will be about 120,290 tons -- about 82 percent of last year's crop. That would make it the third largest ever behind 2006 and 2007.

The Yakima Valley and Moses Lake areas will produce about 40,000 tons -- 24 percent less than last year.

It's an early guess, growers cautioned, but it's the first collective look at how the worst cold snap since 1985 ruined cherry buds in April.

Part of the reason for this year's big projection is a 3 percent to 5 percent jump in acreage over the past decade.

Sweet cherries are a $484 million crop in Washington, which accounts for more than half of the nation's crop. Most are grown in the Yakima and Wenatchee valleys.

A blow to the cherry market is a blow to one of the area's more consistent crops in recent years, said David McFadden, president of the Yakima County Development Association, which monitors and promotes economic development.

"I don't think I can remember a recent year when cherries have not made money," McFadden said.

Cherries also attract migrant labor to the area that helps harvest apples in the fall, he said.

Cherry growers are still assessing cold damage that may be the worst since the 1980s, said Norm Gutzwiler, a Wenatchee grower.

"Mother's Day frosts," he called such cold snaps late in the spring. When they happen, they always surprise him.

"I'm an optimist," he said. "I never plan on rain and I never plan on frost."

"It's too early to tell" the condition of crops was a frequent phrase at the meeting, where growers reluctantly put numbers to their losses.

The group plans to release three more estimates this year before harvest. The first estimate is typically higher than the actual harvest and can vary by about 6 percent.

However, the first forecast helps global retailers set prices and plan promotions. They don't like it when late cold snaps threaten fruit.

"I've never seen retailers more nervous than they are," said Robert Kershaw, a marketer for Domex Super Fresh Growers in Gleed.

However, growers and representatives did not discuss prices at Wednesday's meeting.

Even if cold weather doesn't kill cherries, it hurts marketing efforts. The cold weather pushed back bloom and that pushes back harvest. The Fourth of July is typically a big sales day, but peak harvest may come after that. Stores in Japan, for example, typically don't display cherries after mid-July, Thurlby told growers, even if the best cherries are still to come.

Erratic damage was another running theme Wednesday.

Some orchards that almost never have frost damage are wiped out, while typical problem areas are fine, said Don Olmstead Jr., a third-generation Grandview grower and a board member.

"They're only 100 yards apart," Olmstead said in an interview after the meeting.

Olmstead's losses roughly mirror the 24 percent the Yakima Valley and Moses Lake areas saw. Generally speaking, Prosser and Grandview were two of the worst hit communities.

There are bright spots, some growers said.

Gip Redman of Wapato hardly lost any cherries and has noticed large fruit forming this year. Large cherries sell better than small ones.

"We got to stop talking about doom," Redman, a third-generation farmer, told the group.

*Ross Courtney can be reached at 930-8798 or rcourtney@yakimaherald.com.